Local planning scenario for shading from trees as an urban nature-based solution

With more than 75% of the European Union's population living in urban areas covering 21.5% of the EU territory, the importance of climate-resilient cities, towns and suburbs has increased dramatically. However, the rising impact of human-induced land-use changes on ecosystem services (ES) poses a major challenge to the urban environment. This study focuses on scenario development for nature-based solutions (NbS) in a European town with its intense development area. The concept is exemplified in a town in Croatia, Grad Velika Gorica (GVG), that like many others cities undergoes urbanisation processes with limited resources. It serves as a showpiece for the influence of NbS, in particular street trees along various paths. Using spatial analysis and modelling, the approach explores NbS for future urbanisation. The results, supported by quantitative analysis, show that 49% of cycle lanes and footpaths in GVG can be shaded by strategically planted street trees. The shading scenario analysis provides a nuanced perspective on the potential of NbS, offering insights into the key tasks for a climate-resilient city and opportunities towards equitable, green and healthy urban areas. In the context of urbanisation processes and climate adaptation, the study is in line with the overarching objectives of the European Commission which emphasises the need for sustainable NbS alternatives to address environmental challenges. The findings contribute to the framework of informed decision-making towards urban climate resilience. It also supports the pursuit of a sustainable local governance for climate-adjusted environmental quality in urban planning. As towns and cities grapple with the imperative of balancing urban development with environmental protection, this research highlights the central role of NbS, particularly street trees, in shaping climate-resilient and more sustainable urban environments for human well-being in cities.