Mutational variant allele frequency profile as a biomarker of response to immune checkpoint blockade in non-small cell lung Cancer

Abstract Introduction Identifying new biomarkers for predicting immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) response in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) is crucial. We aimed to assess the variant allele frequency (VAF)-related profile as a novel biomarker for NSCLC personalized therapy. Methods We utilized genomic data of 915 NSCLC patients via cBioPortal and a local cohort of 23 patients for model construction and mutational analysis. Genomic, transcriptomic data from 952 TCGA NSCLC patients, and immunofluorescence (IF) assessment with the local cohort supported mechanism analysis. Results Utilizing the random forest algorithm, a 15-gene VAF-related model was established, differentiating patients with durable clinical benefit (DCB) from no durable benefit (NDB). The model demonstrated robust performance, with ROC-AUC values of 0.905, 0.737, and 0.711 across training (n = 313), internal validation (n = 133), and external validation (n = 157) cohorts. Stratification by the model into high- and low-score groups correlated significantly with both progression-free survival (PFS) (training: P < 0.0001, internal validation: P < 0.0001, external validation: P = 0.0066) and overall survival (OS) (n = 341) ( P < 0.0001). Notably, the stratification system was independent of PD-L1 ( P < 0.0001) and TMB ( P < 0.0001). High-score patients exhibited an increased DCB ratio and longer PFS across both PD-L1 and TMB subgroups. Additionally, the high-score group appeared influenced by tobacco exposure, with activated DNA damage response pathways. Whereas, immune/inflammation-related pathways were enriched in the low-score group. Tumor immune microenvironment analyses revealed higher proportions of exhausted/effector memory CD8 + T cells in the high-score group. Conclusions The mutational VAF profile is a promising biomarker for ICI therapy in NSCLC, with enhanced therapeutic stratification and management as a supplement to PD-L1 or TMB.