Predictive factors of diabetic ketoacidosis in patients with newly onset type 1 diabetes: A single center study

Diabetic ketoacidosis is a severe metabolic emergency often associated with the onset of Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus, with significant morbidity and mortality. Its incidence as the initial presentation of Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus varies widely by country. In Morocco, there is a lack of comprehensive research on the prevalence and risk factors of diabetic ketoacidosis in children with newly diagnosed Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus, highlighting the need for this study. The aim of our study was to analyze the predictive factors of diabetic ketoacidosis at the onset of Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus in children and adolescents at a single medical center in Morocco to develop prevention and management strategies. A retrospective, single-center study including 200 patients aged between 1 and 18 years at Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus onset, between September 2019 and September 2023. The population was divided into two groups according to the presence or absence of diabetic ketoacidosis. Medical records provided data for analysis with SPSS v21, employing Chi-square and Student's t-tests, followed by logistic regression to identify predictors of diabetic ketoacidosis. Multivariate regression identified several factors that were significantly associated with diabetic ketoacidosis at presentation, including age below 5 years (OR: 3.98; p=0.021 compared to 6-10 years and OR: 5.07; P=0.003 compared to 11-18 years), rural living (OR: 2.95; p=0.032), low family income (OR: 9.22; p<0.001), delayed diagnosis (OR: 21.27; p<0.001), longer symptom duration before diagnosis (OR: 1.02; p=0.010), preceding infections (OR: 2.72; p=0.019), and lower vitamin D levels (OR: 0.90; p=0.011). Our findings underscore the critical need for increased awareness, education, use of point-of-care glucose testing, and targeted interventions in rural areas, in order to reduce the incidence of diabetic ketoacidosis. We also highlight the potential role of vitamin D in increasing the risk of diabetic ketoacidosis at the onset of Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus. This study provides important information on the present state of pediatric diabetes care in our country, and suggests target points for future interventions and research.