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Abstract BACKGROUND Pine wilt disease has caused significant economic, ecological, and social losses in China, but there is a notable lack of research on the dynamic process of its propagation and diffusion over long timescales. This study revealed the spatial and temporal spread of the natural invasion of pine wilt disease through an analysis of long time series at macroscopic scales. We analysed and verified by simulations the driving mechanisms of host and wind fields in the natural spread of pine wilt disease. RESULTS The research findings indicate that from 1982 to 2019, the number of counties affected by pine wilt disease in the Yangtze River Delta region of China exhibited a pattern of ‘steady increase–fluctuation–outbreak’. The host forest played a decisive role in the natural spread of the disease, while the wind field played a supporting role. The study revealed specific contributions from various factors, where host forest landscape connectivity, host forest area share, mean wind speed, and wind frequency accounted for 31.8%, 28.7%, 22.6%, and 8.8%, respectively. The interaction of increased host forest area and increased wind speed can significantly increase the risk of pine wilt disease transmission. To validate these findings, vectorial metacellular automata simulations of pine nematode transmission in the Yangtze River Delta were conducted, yielding results with an accuracy of 0.803. CONCLUSION By quantifying the contribution of host forest connectivity to the natural spread of pine wilt disease, this research offers a scientific foundation and innovative insights for preventing and controlling its dissemination. © 2024 Society of Chemical Industry.
Huang et al. (Fri,) studied this question.