Drivers of bitter crab disease occurrence in eastern Bering Sea snow crab (Chionoecetes opilio)

Abstract A recent population collapse of eastern Bering Sea (EBS) snow crab (Chionoecetes opilio) led to the first-ever closure of the snow crab fishery in 2022. The population collapse, caused, in part, by unprecedented warming, was preceded by peaks in juvenile snow crab density (2018) and bitter crab disease (BCD, Hematodinium sp.; 2016), a fatal crustacean disease. Annual bottom trawl surveys in the EBS show high year-to-year spatiotemporal variation in BCD-infected crab, yet it remains unclear what ecological drivers might explain the variation. We used statistical models of BCD presence/absence to examine the relative importance of intrinsic and extrinsic factors as drivers of BCD. We found a dome-shaped relationship between temperature and BCD presence, and results suggest that 2–4°C bottom temperatures are more likely to support BCD. Matching with past work across the globe, we find that stations with high population density of small, new shell crab are most likely to be BCD-positive. While our work highlights the challenges of disease monitoring in the EBS, our results indicate that indirect management measures related to snow crab rebuilding and recruitment may be more appropriate than directed fisheries management in mitigating BCD impacts.