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Abstract In the European Alps, mean temperature has risen by 2.5 K since the end of the nineteenth century. A 2 K warming of the growing season has taken place in the last 4 decades only. The 2.5 K warming should rise the position of the climatic treeline by about 400 m. Actual shifts in uppermost tree positions reported here for the Austrian Defereggen Valley and the Swiss Lower Engadine region of the Eastern Alps reach only around 140 m of elevation above the limit of old trees that date back to the nineteenth century. Uppermost Pinus cembra trees of > 2 m height currently occur at c. 2500 m, representing elevation records for the Eastern Alps. In situ temperature records for 2022–2023 revealed seasonal mean temperatures for uppermost trees that are 1–3 K higher than the equilibrium treeline isotherm of c. 6 °C in both regions (corrected for temperature anomalies from long-term records). The 2 K span reflects microhabitat differences and two ways to define the season. Thus, tree advances lag behind the upslope shift of the treeline isotherm, on average, by more than 200 m. The uppermost trees currently grow under quite warm conditions with annual shoot length increments frequently reaching 20 cm. Even without additional future warming, the new steady-state climatic treeline will exceed the Holocene maximum elevation in the Eastern Alps substantially.
Körner et al. (Mon,) studied this question.