Comparative analysis of RNA 3D structure prediction methods: towards enhanced modeling of RNA–ligand interactions

Abstract Accurate RNA structure models are crucial for designing small molecule ligands that modulate their functions. This study assesses six standalone RNA 3D structure prediction methods—DeepFoldRNA, RhoFold, BRiQ, FARFAR2, SimRNA and Vfold2, excluding web-based tools due to intellectual property concerns. We focus on reproducing the RNA structure existing in RNA-small molecule complexes, particularly on the ability to model ligand binding sites. Using a comprehensive set of RNA structures from the PDB, which includes diverse structural elements, we found that machine learning (ML)-based methods effectively predict global RNA folds but are less accurate with local interactions. Conversely, non-ML-based methods demonstrate higher precision in modeling intramolecular interactions, particularly with secondary structure restraints. Importantly, ligand-binding site accuracy can remain sufficiently high for practical use, even if the overall model quality is not optimal. With the recent release of AlphaFold 3, we included this advanced method in our tests. Benchmark subsets containing new structures, not used in the training of the tested ML methods, show that AlphaFold 3′s performance was comparable to other ML-based methods, albeit with some challenges in accurately modeling ligand binding sites. This study underscores the importance of enhancing binding site prediction accuracy and the challenges in modeling RNA–ligand interactions accurately.