African Popular Protest and Political Change

Abstract: In the twenty-first century, African countries have hosted more mass movements than any other region in the world. In the last decade, one in every three nonviolent revolutionary campaigns has taken place in Africa. The region also has the highest short-term success rate for people power. But is this success predicated on the mobilizational force of "protest democracy" to hold elites accountable? Or are African social movements' remarkable successes an environmental artefact, the result of ordinary protests in contexts of extraordinary instability? The evidence suggests that African social movements are uniquely effective and that political and military elites are increasingly trying to harness their power. Ordinary people—marshalled in massive demonstrations and persistent civil society organizing—have played a necessary, often decisive role in agitating for democracy. However, eliciting successful breakthroughs requires the alignment of protester demands with the abandonment of the status quo by elite blocs. Recent cascades of irregular power transfers in African politics illustrate these distinctive dynamics, where diverse domestic political contexts share an important common ingredient: the combination of mass movements pushing for change and military power players who are willing to help them.