On-treatment biopsies to predict response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy for breast cancer

Abstract Background Patients with pathologic complete response (pCR) to neoadjuvant chemotherapy for invasive breast cancer (BC) have better outcomes, potentially warranting less extensive surgical and systemic treatments. Early prediction of treatment response could aid in adapting therapies. Methods On-treatment biopsies from 297 patients with invasive BC in three randomized, prospective neoadjuvant trials were assessed. BC quantity, tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs), and the proliferation marker Ki-67 were compared to pre-treatment samples. The study investigated the correlation between residual cancer, changes in Ki-67 and TILs, and their impact on pathologic complete response (pCR) and disease-free survival (DFS). Results Among the 297 samples, 138 (46%) were hormone receptor-positive (HR+)/human epidermal growth factor 2-negative (HER2-), 87 (29%) were triple-negative (TNBC), and 72 (24%) were HER2+. Invasive tumor cells were found in 70% of on-treatment biopsies, with varying rates across subtypes (HR+/HER2-: 84%, TNBC: 62%, HER2+: 51%; p < 0.001). Patients with residual tumor on-treatment had an 8% pCR rate post-treatment (HR+/HER2-: 3%, TNBC: 19%, HER2+: 11%), while those without any invasive tumor had a 50% pCR rate (HR+/HER2-: 27%; TNBC: 48%, HER2+: 66%). Sensitivity for predicting residual disease was 0.81, with positive and negative predictive values of 0.92 and 0.50, respectively. Increasing TILs from baseline to on-treatment biopsy (if residual tumor was present) were linked to higher pCR likelihood in the overall cohort (OR 1.034, 95% CI 1.013–1.056 per % increase; p = 0.001) and with a longer DFS in TNBC (HR 0.980, 95% CI 0.963–0.997 per % increase; p = 0.026). Persisting or increased Ki-67 was associated with lower pCR probability in the overall cohort (OR 0.957, 95% CI 0.928–0.986; p = 0.004) and shorter DFS in TNBC (HR 1.023, 95% CI 1.001–1.047; p = 0.04). Conclusion On-treatment biopsies can predict patients unlikely to achieve pCR post-therapy. This could facilitate therapy adjustments for TNBC or HER2 + BC. They also might offer insights into therapy resistance mechanisms. Future research should explore whether standardized or expanded sampling enhances the accuracy of on-treatment biopsy procedures. Trial Registration GeparQuattro (EudraCT 2005-001546-17; Start date: 28.06.2005), GeparQuinto (EudraCT 2006-005834-19; Start date: 27.10.2007) and GeparSixto (EudraCT 2011-000553-23; Start date: 29.09.2011).