Is US farm sector debt underestimated? Evidence from equipment lending

Purpose The growth of lending from nontraditional lenders may pose challenges for official US Department of Agriculture (USDA) farm sector debt estimates, but it is difficult to find data to assess official estimates. The purpose of this study is to examine whether debt provided by nontraditional lenders is accurately accounted for in official estimates. Design/methodology/approach We compare traditional and nontraditional lending data from farm equipment lien collateral values and the USDA Agricultural Resource Management Survey (ARMS). After analyzing trends in equipment lending implied by farm equipment lien data and ARMS, we estimate whether changes in farm equipment lien values predict changes in equipment debt reported in ARMS and whether lender type influences that relationship. Findings We find that credit provided by nontraditional lenders is likely underreported in ARMS. Our econometric model shows that equipment debt volumes for nontraditional lenders are consistently lower than traditional loan volumes in ARMS across a variety of model specifications. We also find that an increase in lien values for nontraditional lenders is less likely to predict an increase in ARMS equipment debt volumes than an increase for traditional lenders. Practical implications Official farm sector debt estimates may not fully account for nontraditional lenders. Originality/value This study demonstrates how the growth of nontraditional lending poses challenges for estimating US farm sector debt. We evaluate farm sector debt estimates and advance knowledge of the role of nontraditional lenders in farm equipment credit provision. The farm equipment lien dataset provides a rich source of novel data for research on local and national equipment debt and investment.