Canada's Liberals look beyond Trudeau's leadership

Significance The loss of one of its safest seats underscores the challenge the party faces in winning the next election, due by mid-2025. While it is unlikely to change either its leader or its policies before then, a real debate is beginning about what a post-Trudeau party should look like. Impacts Economist and banker Mark Carney is the potential Trudeau successor most feared by Conservatives but he is vulnerable to charges of elitism. A move to the left or victory for another centrist would give the party little room to grow its base. More evidence that the NDP is underperforming reduces the chance that it, rather than the Liberals, becomes the main opposition in 2025. A Conservative majority in 2025 would push the next election to 2029 or 2030, giving a new Liberal leader plenty of time to prepare.