Clinical Outcomes in Patients with CKD and Rapid or Non-rapid eGFR Decline: A Report from the DISCOVER CKD Retrospective Cohort

This analysis examined the baseline characteristics and clinical outcomes of patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) and rapid or non-rapid estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) decline, using retrospective data from DISCOVER CKD (ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04034992). Data (2008–2020) were extracted from UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink, US TriNetX, US Limited Claims and Electronic Health Record Dataset, and Japan Medical Data Vision. Patients with CKD (two consecutive eGFR measures 4 mL/min/1.73 m2 at 2 years post-index; non-rapid eGFR decline was defined as an annual decline of ≤ 4 mL/min/1.73 m2. Clinical outcomes assessed included all-cause mortality, kidney outcomes (composite risk of kidney failure progression to CKD stage 5 or > 50% eGFR decline, and kidney failure alone), cardiovascular events—including major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE; non-fatal myocardial infarction/stroke and cardiovascular death)—and all-cause hospitalization. Across databases, rapid eGFR decline occurred in 13.7% of 804,237 eligible patients. Mean annual eGFR decline ranged between − 6.21 and − 6.86 mL/min/1.73 m2 in patients with rapid eGFR decline versus between − 0.11 and − 0.77 mL/min/1.73 m2 in patients with non-rapid eGFR decline. Rapid eGFR decline was associated with increased comorbidity burden and medication prescriptions. Across databases, the composite risk of kidney failure or > 50% decline in eGFR was significantly greater in patients with rapid versus non-rapid eGFR decline (P < 0.01); all-cause mortality, kidney failure alone, MACE, and all-cause hospitalization each significantly increased in two databases (P < 0.01–0.05). Understanding patient factors associated with rapid eGFR decline in patients with CKD may help identify individuals who would benefit from proactive management to minimize the risk of adverse outcomes. ClinicalTrials.gov identifier, NCT04034992.