Modeling nuclear waste disposal in crystalline rocks at the Forsmark and Olkiluoto repository sites – Evaluation of potential thermal–mechanical damage to repository excavations

We conduct coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical modeling of a KBS-3V repository design in crystalline rocks, using data and conditions from the Forsmark in Olkiluoto repository sites in Sweden and Finland. The study focuses on repository performance related to the impact of thermal and hydraulic evolution on the potential for thermal–mechanical damage to underground repository excavations. For the designs and conditions considered at the Forsmark and Olkiluoto repository sites, the simulations show a peak temperature well under the adopted performance target of a 100°C maximum temperature, whereas there is still a high potential for thermal–mechanical damage to the KBS-3V waste deposition holes. The thermal–mechanical damage is much more likely if rock permeability is so low that it delays saturation and swelling of bentonite-clay-based backfill beyond the time for the thermal–mechanical peak, which occurs 50 to 100 years after nuclear waste deposition. We also found that sidewalls of the KBS-3V emplacement tunnels are vulnerable to tensile fracturing due to the combined effect of thermal stressing and backfill swelling. The study highlights a strong interaction between bentonite-based backfill and host rock through capillary suction along with induced rock desaturation. A careful design and selection of the bentonite-clay-based backfill materials for KBS-3V tunnels and deposition holes can facilitate a timely saturation and backfill swelling that in turn can minimize thermal–mechanical damage.