Can Rural Digitization and the Efficiency of Agricultural Carbon Emissions Be Coupled and Harmonized under the “Dual-Carbon” Goal?

A major driving force behind China’s low-carbon, environmentally friendly development of agriculture and the accomplishment of the “dual-carbon” goal is the digital transformation of rural areas. In this study, on the basis of clarifying the degree of rural digitization and agricultural carbon emissions efficiency in China from 2010 to 2021, the degree of coupled coordination and the spatiotemporal pattern characteristics between the two are examined using the coupled coordination model. Then, the influencing factors are analyzed in depth using the spatial Durbin model. Our findings reveal that, first, in terms of the degree of rural digitization, the index increases overall and the spatial imbalance is obvious, with a spatial distribution pattern of “high in the east and low in the west”. Regarding the efficiency of agricultural carbon emissions, there is an overall “N-shaped” change, which is mainly influenced by technological progress in agricultural production, and the regional annual averages are, in descending order, the Western, Eastern, Northeastern, and Central regions, with obvious regional differences. Second, the coupling coordination index shows a fluctuating upward trend, from “extreme disorder” to “high-level coordination”. Furthermore, there are obvious regional characteristics. The regional growth rates are, in descending order, the Western, Eastern, Central, and Northeastern regions. Third, coupling coordination is jointly influenced by a variety of factors, including government input, educational level, industrial structure, energy use, urbanization rate, living standards, driving temporal patterns, and regional differences. This study not only helps to clarify the relationship between the two, offering a reference for the realization of the “dual-carbon” goal, but also broadens the concepts of the low-carbon and environmentally friendly development of agriculture.