Dynamic systems analysis of waste generation in Banda Aceh: a comprehensive evaluation

Abstract Many researchers state that municipal waste management is a city service that must be provided effectively to all residents to achieve prosperity because this problem has been considered a serious problem facing cities. One alternative to look at the waste problem is to evaluate the waste management system using a dynamic system model. The research aims to evaluate the conditions of waste generation in order to optimize waste management efforts in Banda Aceh. A simulation model was conducted in this research based on a dynamic system using Powersim and Stella software. The treatment carried out include collecting primary and secondary data, creating Causal Loop Diagrams and Stock Flow Diagrams, as well as simulations of waste generation based on existing data spanning the years 2017 to 2022. Results show that Banda Aceh City’s waste generation continues to increase with exponential growth behavior during 2017-2022. Simulation results show that in 2030, this waste will reach 255,043 tons with a waste generation rate of 0.63761 tons per year. Results of dynamic system modeling show a sustainable increase in waste production caused by an increase in population. Model validation analysis shows that AVE and MAVE values obtained were 0.0037 and 0.0631, respectively. These results were considered acceptable since they were both less than 10%.