Time-Series Embeddings from Language Models: A Tool for Wind Direction Nowcasting

Abstract Wind direction nowcasting is crucial in various sectors, particularly for ensuring aviation operations and safety. In this context, the TELMo (Time-series Embeddings from Language Models) model, a sophisticated deep learning architecture, has been introduced in this work for enhanced wind-direction nowcasting. Developed by using three years of data from multiple stations in the complex terrain of an international airport, TELMo incorporates the horizontal u (east–west) and v (north–south) wind components to significantly reduce forecasting errors. On a day with high wind direction variability, TELMo achieved mean absolute error values of 5.66 for 2-min, 10.59 for 10-min, and 14.79 for 20-min forecasts, processed within a swift 9-ms/step timeframe. Standard degree-based analysis, in comparison, yielded lower performance, emphasizing the effectiveness of the u and v components. In contrast, a Vanilla neural network, representing a shallow-learning approach, underperformed in all analyses, highlighting the superiority of deep learning methodologies in wind direction nowcasting. TELMo is an efficient model, capable of accurately forecasting wind direction for air traffic operations, with an error less than 20° in 97.49% of the predictions, aligning with recommended international thresholds. This model design enables its applicability across various geographical locations, making it a versatile tool in global aviation meteorology.