Circular strategies for building sector decarbonization in China: A scenario analysis

Abstract The building sector in China is responsible for 40% of total energy‐related CO 2 emissions, driven by its large population, continuous economic growth, and construction boom. In addition to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from energy use, buildings drive significant emissions for construction activities and production of energy‐intensive materials, such as steel and cement. While supply‐side energy strategies have been extensively explored, a demand‐side perspective that considers stock dynamics and circularity improvements is essential to assess sustainable pathways for the buildings sector. Here, we explore a set of decarbonization scenarios for the building sector in China considering a range of circular strategies and their interplay with different climate policies. The strategies include lifetime extension of buildings, switch to wood‐based construction, reduction of per‐capita floorspace, and a combination of all three strategies. We use the building sector model MESSAGEix‐Buildings soft linked to the integrated assessment model (IAM) MESSAGEix‐GLOBIOM and prospective life cycle assessment (LCA) to assess the effects of these circular strategies on building material and energy demands, and operational and embodied emissions. We find that the three strategies could reduce building material demand up to 60% on mass basis by 2060 compared to a reference scenario with continuation of current policies. This translates into a reduction of embodied and total GHG emissions of 62% and 24%, respectively, significantly contributing to achieving decarbonization targets. Integrating industrial ecology methods in IAMs, as demonstrated in this study, can provide valuable insights to inform national policy decisions on mitigation strategies accounting for both demand and supply sides.