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The transition of China's hydrogen production system to meeting carbon neutrality is considerably uncertain. This study uses a probabilistic framework to assess the transition pathways of hydrogen production in China to meet the goal of carbon neutrality and reveals the key technology selection mechanism. Three strategies for hydrogen production transition were considered: delayed, orderly, and radical, corresponding to the green hydrogen shares between 70 and 95% in 2060. More ambitious strategies tended to result in greater uncertainty of green hydrogen production and introduce higher system costs and cost uncertainty. The different strategies showed notable differences in carbon dioxide (CO
Zhen et al. (Wed,) studied this question.