Classification of Suicide Attempt Risk Using Environmental and Lifestyle Factors in 3 Large Youth Cohorts

Importance Suicide is the third-leading cause of death among US adolescents. Environmental and lifestyle factors influence suicidal behavior and can inform risk classification, yet quantifying and incorporating them in risk assessment presents a significant challenge for reproducibility and clinical translation. Objective To quantify the aggregate contribution of environmental and lifestyle factors to youth suicide attempt risk classification. Design, Setting, and Participants This was a cohort study in 3 youth samples: 2 national longitudinal cohorts from the US and the UK and 1 clinical cohort from a tertiary pediatric US hospital. An exposome-wide association study (ExWAS) approach was used to identify risk and protective factors and compute aggregate exposomic scores. Logistic regression models were applied to test associations and model fit of exposomic scores with suicide attempts in independent data. Youth from the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development (ABCD) study, the UK Millennium Cohort Study (MCS), and the Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia emergency department (CHOP-ED) were included in the study. Exposures A single-weighted exposomic score that sums significant risk and protective environmental/lifestyle factors. Main Outcome and Measure Self-reported suicide attempt. Results A total of 40 364 youth were included in this analysis: 11 564 from the ABCD study (3 waves of assessment; mean SD age, 12.0 0.7 years; 6034 male 52.2%; 344 attempted suicide 3.0%; 1154 environmental/lifestyle factors were included in the ABCD study), 9000 from the MCS cohort (mean SD age, 17.2 0.3 years; 4593 female 51.0%; 661 attempted suicide 7.3%; 2864 environmental/lifestyle factors were included in the MCS cohort), and 19 800 from the CHOP-ED cohort (mean SD age, 15.3 1.5 years; 12 937 female 65.3%; 2051 attempted suicide 10.4%; 36 environmental/lifestyle factors were included in the CHOP-ED cohort). In the ABCD discovery subsample, ExWAS identified 99 risk and protective exposures significantly associated with suicide attempt. A single weighted exposomic score that sums significant risk and protective exposures was associated with suicide attempt in an independent ABCD testing subsample (odds ratio OR, 2.2; 95% CI, 2.0-2.6; P lt; .001) and explained 17.6% of the variance (based on regression pseudo- R 2 ) in suicide attempt over and above that explained by age, sex, race, and ethnicity (2.8%) and by family history of suicide (6.3%). Findings were consistent in the MCS and CHOP-ED cohorts (explaining 22.6% and 19.3% of the variance in suicide attempt, respectively) despite clinical, demographic, and exposure differences. In all cohorts, compared with youth at the median quintile of the exposomic score, youth at the top fifth quintile were substantially more likely to have made a suicide attempt (OR, 4.3; 95% CI, 2.6-7.2 in the ABCD study; OR, 3.8; 95% CI, 2.7-5.3 in the MCS cohort; OR, 5.8; 95% CI, 4.7-7.1 in the CHOP-ED cohort). Conclusions and Relevance Results suggest that exposomic scores of suicide attempt provided a generalizable method for risk classification that can be applied in diverse samples from clinical or population settings.