Quantification and Driving Factors of Cultivated Land Fragmentation in Rapidly Urbanizing Area: A Case Study in Guangdong Province

Cultivated land resources are crucial for food security and economic and social development. However, with the acceleration of urbanization and shifts in land use, cultivated land fragmentation (CLF) has emerged as a significant factor constraining the sustainable development of agriculture in China. As the most urbanized region, optimizing cultivated land resources and coordinating urban and rural development has become an urgent issue for rural sustainable development in Guangdong Province. This study analyzes the spatiotemporal characteristics of CLF in Guangdong Province from 2000 to 2020 using landscape pattern indices, CRITIC empowerment, and a multiscale geographically weighted regression (MGWR) model. The cultivated land fragmentation index (CLFI) for Guangdong Province reveals a fluctuating trend from 2000 to 2012, increasing from 0.453 in 2012 to 0.641 in 2020. The CLFI is notably high in the Pearl River Delta region, as well as in Meizhou and Maoming. The results show the dynamic changes of the driving factors of CLF at the county scale in 2000, 2010, and 2020. Slope and grain output consistently emerge as key driving factors of CLF. Furthermore, agricultural benefits played a significant role in 2000 and 2020, whereas the coefficient for social economic development was more pronounced in 2010. By identifying the heterogeneity of the driving factors, this study suggests that strategies to address CLF should comprehensively consider aspects such as the optimization of cultivated land resources, farmers’ interests, industrial restructuring, and the multifunctional development of farmland. The study findings can assist government policy-making for rural sustainable development, addressing CLF and food insecurity, and alleviating the regional development imbalance and urban–rural income gap, with the ultimate aim of achieving common prosperity.