Identifying the influence of climate policy uncertainty and oil prices on modern renewable energies: novel evidence from the United States

Abstract The policy uncertainty surrounding climate change can intensify the urgency of implementing climate policies and influence investment decisions, thereby serving as a catalyst for policy transformation. In this context, given its withdrawal from and subsequent re-commitment to the Paris Agreement, the United States (US) may experience policy uncertainty over climate change. Given this backdrop, it is of paramount importance to explore how the uncertainties caused by shifts in climate policy affect clean energy. This study delves into the impact of climate policy uncertainty and oil prices on modern renewable energy sources, such as solar, wind, geothermal, and biofuels. The most recent monthly data from 1989 to 2023 are used by conducting the Residual Augmented Least Squares (RALS) methodology. The empirical findings show that the uncertainty surrounding climate policy is leading to a shift in the US energy composition, with a focus on solar energy, wind energy, and biofuels. Moreover, the fluctuation in oil prices has a significant effect on the deployment of wind and biofuels, but no discernible effect on solar power. These findings provide significant insights for aligning climate policy in the US with Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 7, highlighting the crucial importance of encouraging investments in solar energy, wind energy, and biofuels. Graphical abstract