Chaotic mediation dims prospects of ending Sudan’s war

Significance This comes after three separate new international peace initiatives in three different cities were launched in early July. Some 15 months into the conflict, international mediation efforts remain chaotic and disjointed, exacerbating divisions among Sudanese civilian groups and creating more room for the belligerents to ‘forum shop’. Impacts Engaging exclusively with elite actors while sidelining grassroots groups is unlikely to deliver a durable peace agreement. There is little international appetite for more robust measures, such as a civilian protection force or even unilateral cross-border aid. Excluding Islamists may result in deals SAF cannot honour but including them risks angering civilian actors and threatening democratisation. As SAF suffers mounting military setbacks, its internal cohesion and Burhan’s own position will face growing risks. Amid RSF advances and the onset of the rainy season, humanitarian needs will continue to grow while access becomes more difficult.