Improving likelihood calculation by mapping MITRE ATT&CK to existing controls

Assessing the likelihood of threats is notoriously difficult for assessors. This paper will demonstrate a new, evidence-based approach to leverage existing security control assessments in determining likelihood of specific MITRE ATT&CK adversarial tactics, techniques and procedures (TTPs). Through automation, we can develop organisation-specific threat profiles for known adversaries and assist in strategic security programme management.