Deep mutational scanning of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.2.86 and epistatic emergence of the KP.3 variant

Deep mutational scanning experiments aid in the surveillance and forecasting of viral evolution by providing prospective measurements of mutational effects on viral traits, but epistatic shifts in the impacts of mutations can hinder viral forecasting when measurements were made in outdated strain backgrounds. Here, we report measurements of the impact of all single amino acid mutations on ACE2-binding affinity and protein folding and expression in the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.2.86 spike receptor-binding domain (RBD). As with other SARS-CoV-2 variants, we find a plastic and evolvable basis for receptor binding, with many mutations at the ACE2 interface maintaining or even improving ACE2-binding affinity. Despite its large genetic divergence, mutational effects in BA.2.86 have not diverged greatly from those measured in its Omicron BA.2 ancestor. However, we do identify strong positive epistasis among subsequent mutations that have accrued in BA.2.86 descendants. Specifically, the Q493E mutation that decreased ACE2-binding affinity in all previous SARS-CoV-2 backgrounds is reversed in sign to enhance human ACE2-binding affinity when coupled with L455S and F456L in the currently emerging KP.3 variant. Our results point to a modest degree of epistatic drift in mutational effects during recent SARS-CoV-2 evolution but highlight how these small epistatic shifts can have important consequences for the emergence of new SARS-CoV-2 variants.