“Risk is not Measured, but Contested and Compromised”: A Case Study of Jakarta–Bandung High-Speed Railway

The Jakarta–Bandung High-Speed Railway has been widely seen as China's signature Belt and Road Initiative project in Indonesia. To date, there is scant analysis of how risk has been managed throughout the project's life cycle or of the dynamics of power relationships – the conflicts and compromises made between coalitions of the capitalist and political classes – that are intrinsic to China–Indonesia infrastructure co-operation. This article fills this gap by investigating how Chinese companies have managed risks by building alliances with dominant socio-political forces and state capital in Indonesia – designated here as "ex post risk management." To explore this ex post risk management, this article applies Gramscian state theory and brings the conceptualisation of risk and social forces into dialogue. It contends that the understanding of risk and risk management are contingent upon negotiated compromises between different social forces – state capital, internationalised state apparatuses, and industrial capital – that are bound via infrastructure financing and other ongoing industrial and construction projects in Indonesia. These interactive dynamics have resulted in the institutionalisation of risk through and within the state that derides the social foundation of Indonesia's current infrastructure regime.