The Impact of Economic Shocks on the Value of Agricultural Domestic Product in Iraq for the Period (2004-2022)

Abstract The research aims to measure the impact of economic shocks on the value of agricultural domestic products in Iraq for the period (2004-2022) using quarterly time series. The value of an agricultural domestic product was used as a dependent variable while the independent variables were (oil prices - public revenues - public expenditures - allocations Agricultural investment - agricultural imports-gross domestic product), and the (Vector Error Correction Model) model, impulse response functions, and variance components analysis were used to achieve the objectives of the study. The research reached the most important results, as both the value of oil prices and agricultural imports It has a significant but in a way negative impact on the value of agricultural output due to the state’s dependence on financing the general budget through oil revenues, as well as the state’s dependence on imports. Agricultural production was largely used to obtain food as well as agricultural supplies. Public revenues, public expenditures, and agricultural investment allocations had a significant and positive impact on the value of agricultural output, as the increase in any of these variables leads to an increase in the value of agricultural output in a significant way. Relatively, the most important thing that was achieved was achieving the research hypothesis, which states that economic shocks have a negative impact on the agricultural sector. The research recommended the necessity of improving the management of depleted resources, reducing their consumption, and developing appropriate plans and policies to preserve the sustainability of these resources for future generations.