Using machine learning to predict the risk of short-term and long-term death in acute kidney injury patients after commencing CRRT

Abstract Background The mortality rate and prognosis of short-term and long-term acute kidney injury (AKI) patients who undergo continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT) are different. Setting up risk stratification tools for both short-term and long-term deaths is highly important for clinicians. Method A total of 1535 AKI patients receiving CRRT were included in this study, with 1144 from the training set (the Dryad database) and 391 from the validation set (MIMIC IV database). A model for predicting mortality within 10 and 90 days was built using nine different machine learning (ML) algorithms. AUROC, F1-score, accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, precision, and calibration curves were used to assess the predictive performance of various ML models. Results A total of 420 (31.1%) deaths occurred within 10 days, and 1080 (68.8%) deaths occurred within 90 days. The random forest (RF) model performed best in both predicting 10-day (AUROC: 0.80, 95% CI: 0.74–0.84; accuracy: 0.72, 95% CI: 0.67–0.76; F1-score: 0.59) and 90-day mortality (AUROC: 0.78, 95% CI: 0.73–0.83; accuracy: 0.73, 95% CI: 0.69–0.78; F1-score: 0.80). The importance of the feature shows that SOFA scores are rated as the most important risk factor for both 10-day and 90-day mortality. Conclusion Our study, utilizing multiple machine learning models, estimates the risk of short-term and long-term mortality among AKI patients who commence CRRT. The results demonstrated that the prognostic factors for short-term and long-term mortality are different. The RF model has the best prediction performance and has valuable potential for clinical application.