Social and health factors influence self-reported evacuation intentions in the wildfire-prone island of Tasmania, Australia

Personal decisions regarding evacuation to a safer place in response to the threat of wildfire have multiple social and cultural influences. However, little is understood about the role of an individual's health in shaping these decisions. Aim: To investigate associations between self-reported sociodemographic and health-related variables and wildfire evacuation intentions. We used data collected in the 2016 Tasmanian Population Health Survey and implemented log binomial regression modelling to characterise associations between variables, including overall health status, presence of a chronic medical condition, age group, sex, educational attainment, employment status, financial security, and intention to leave during a wildfire threat. Females were significantly more likely than males to report an intention to leave (RR = 1.52, 95 % CI 1.40–1.66), as were those with higher versus lower educational attainment (RR = 1.02, 95 % CI 1.00–1.03), and those with a diagnosis of depression/anxiety (RR = 1.07, 95 % CI 1.00–1.15) compared to those without. When stratified by sex, significant associations with intention to leave and asthma and higher educational attainment were observed in males (asthma: RR = 1.28, 95 % CI 1.04–1.57; educational attainment RR = 1.05, 95 % CI 1.01–1.09), while the association with anxiety/depression was imprecisely elevated for females (RR = 1.08, 95 % CI 1.00–1.16). For males only, the presence of a chronic condition was significantly associated with an intention to stay (RR = 0.78, 95 % CI 0.62–0.99). Sex, educational attainment, and the presence of asthma and depression/anxiety influenced evacuation intentions for residents in our study. Such social, demographic and health differences should be considered in planning communication and messaging to residents in fire-prone areas.