Association of Urinary Metals With Cardiovascular Disease Incidence and All-Cause Mortality in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA)

BACKGROUND: Exposure to metals has been associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD) end points and mortality, yet prospective evidence is limited beyond arsenic, cadmium, and lead. In this study, we assessed the prospective association of urinary metals with incident CVD and all-cause mortality in a racially diverse population of US adults from MESA (the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis). METHODS: We included 6599 participants (mean SD age, 62.1 10.2 years; 53% female) with urinary metals available at baseline (2000 to 2001) and followed through December 2019. We used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate the adjusted hazard ratio and 95% CI of CVD and all-cause mortality by baseline urinary levels of cadmium, tungsten, and uranium (nonessential metals), and cobalt, copper, and zinc (essential metals). The joint association of the 6 metals as a mixture and the corresponding 10-year survival probability was calculated using Cox Elastic-Net. RESULTS: During follow-up, 1162 participants developed CVD, and 1844 participants died. In models adjusted by behavioral and clinical indicators, the hazard ratios (95% CI) for incident CVD and all-cause mortality comparing the highest with the lowest quartile were, respectively: 1.25 (1.03, 1.53) and 1.68 (1.43, 1.96) for cadmium; 1.20 (1.01, 1.42) and 1.16 (1.01, 1.33) for tungsten; 1.32 (1.08, 1.62) and 1.32 (1.12, 1.56) for uranium; 1.24 (1.03, 1.48) and 1.37 (1.19, 1.58) for cobalt; 1.42 (1.18, 1.70) and 1.50 (1.29, 1.74) for copper; and 1.21 (1.01, 1.45) and 1.38 (1.20, 1.59) for zinc. A positive linear dose-response was identified for cadmium and copper with both end points. The adjusted hazard ratios (95% CI) for an interquartile range (IQR) increase in the mixture of these 6 urinary metals and the corresponding 10-year survival probability difference (95% CI) were 1.29 (1.11, 1.56) and –1.1% (–2.0, –0.05) for incident CVD and 1.66 (1.47, 1.91) and –2.0% (–2.6, –1.5) for all-cause mortality. CONCLUSIONS: This epidemiological study in US adults indicates that urinary metal levels are associated with increased CVD risk and mortality. These findings can inform the development of novel preventive strategies to improve cardiovascular health.