A machine learning-based predictive model for the in-hospital mortality of critically ill patients with atrial fibrillation

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is common among intensive care unit (ICU) patients and significantly raises the in-hospital mortality rate. Existing scoring systems or models have limited predictive capabilities for AF patients in ICU. Our study developed and validated machine learning models to predict the risk of in-hospital mortality in ICU patients with AF. Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC)-IV dataset and eICU Collaborative Research Database (eICU-CRD) were analyzed. Among ten classifiers compared, adaptive boosting (AdaBoost) showed better performance in predicting all-cause mortality in AF patients. A compact model with 15 features was developed and validated. Both the all variable and compact models exhibited excellent performance with area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) of 1(95%confidence interval CI: 1.0–1.0) in the training set. In the MIMIC-IV testing set, the AUCs of the all variable and compact models were 0.978 (95% CI: 0.973–0.982) and 0.977 (95% CI: 0.972–0.982), respectively. In the external validation set, the AUCs of all variable and compact models were 0.825 (95% CI: 0.815–0.834) and 0.807 (95% CI: 0.796–0.817), respectively. An AdaBoost-based predictive model was subjected to internal and external validation, highlighting its strong predictive capacity for assessing the risk of in-hospital mortality in ICU patients with AF.