Effects of Agricultural Trade on Reducing Carbon Emissions under the “Dual Carbon” Target: Evidence from China

Within the “dual carbon” framework, sustainable agriculture is pivotal for climate change mitigation and long-term agricultural health. To explore the environmental effects of agricultural trade, this study assesses the carbon emissions from agriculture using information from 30 provinces in China (excluding Tibet, Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan due to a lack of available data) from 2001 to 2021. Then, we analyzed the impact of agricultural trade on agricultural carbon emissions and tested for the possible existence of mechanisms. Finally, we validate the synergistic effects of agricultural trade on pollution and carbon abatement. The findings were as follows: (1) Agricultural trade significantly suppresses agricultural carbon emissions. (2) Agricultural technological progress and the rationalization of the structure of the agricultural industry are the two influencing mechanisms. (3) The inhibitory effect of agricultural trade on agricultural carbon emissions is more pronounced in southern regions and regions with lower degree of topographic relief and higher agricultural industrial agglomeration. (4) Agricultural trade fosters the collaborative advancement of mitigating agricultural pollution and reducing carbon emissions. As a result, this study confirms that agricultural trade has a role in reducing carbon emissions and that giving full play to the environmental effects of trade in agricultural products contributes to the high-quality development of agriculture.