Assessing Japan’s Taiwan Policy: Systemic Clarity, Political Survival and Bureaucratic Prudence

What are the patterns of Japan's foreign policy behavior toward Taiwan in the post-Cold War era? It is generally taken for granted that the origin of Japan's foreign policy to Taiwan has been derived from a unitary strategic calculation related to East Asian international politics and its maritime security in the Asia-Pacific region. This conventional interpretation is insufficient. While external pressure and states' relative material capabilities within the structure of the international system are crucial in explaining Japan's policy toward Taiwan, interpretations based solely on the system level of analysis fail to provide a persuasive explanation of Japan's foreign policy behavior. By conducting three case studies in 2006, 2019 and 2021 through the theoretical lens of neoclassical realism and empirical investigation based on primary and secondary Japanese-language sources, this article argues that Japan's Taiwan policy has been shaped by the combination of three factors: the degree of systemic clarity at the international level, the Japanese prime minister's political survival and bureaucratic prudence over the Taiwan issue at the domestic level. Since 2021, Japan has adopted a subtle approach to Taiwan, driven more by a defensive and precautionary response to the heightened sense of crisis across the Taiwan Strait.