Predicting trawl catches using environmental DNA

Abstract Quantifying the biomass, or number of individuals, diversity, and distribution of marine species is a critical aspect of understanding and managing marine ecosystems. In recent years, there has been growing interest in using environmental DNA (eDNA) for marine ecosystem management and biodiversity assessment. However, the main challenge hindering eDNA applicability has been the inability to infer absolute species abundances from multispecies analysis (eDNA metabarcoding). In this study, we demonstrate a way forward by estimating the abundance of commercially important fish species in a Norwegian fjord using a joint Bayesian statistical model of traditional trawl-catch data and molecular data derived from eDNA. Using this model, we accurately predict out-of-sample trawl catches using eDNA alone. Moreover, our model provides empirical estimates for key processes linking marine eDNA concentration to the fish population abundance estimated from trawl observations, including trawl catchability, DNA shedding, degradation, dilution, transport, recovery rate, and isolation efficiency. These processes, including amplification efficiencies correcting for Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) bias, are species-specific and enable the translation of eDNA metabarcoding data into abundances. These findings have broad implications for the use of eDNA in marine ecosystem management and conservation efforts.