Analysis of the Decoupling between Urban Economic Development and Transportation Carbon Emissions in China: Empirical Evidence from 284 Cities

The proposal of China’s “double carbon target” means that China is trying to realize the decoupling between economic development and carbon emissions. Based on the dual perspectives of velocity decoupling and quantitative decoupling, this paper systematically analyzes the decoupling state between transportation carbon emissions and economic development in 284 Chinese cities from 2006 to 2020 by using the Tapio decoupling model and the environmental Kuznets curve model. The results show the following: (1) From the perspective of velocity decoupling, most China’s cities have initially realized the decoupling state of transportation carbon emissions and urban economic development, entering the stage of weak decoupling, but not yet into the stage of strong decoupling, which indicates the decoupling level still needs to be improved. In space, the regions with high decoupling levels show the spatial differentiation characteristics of more in the east and middle, and less in the west. (2) From the perspective of quantitative decoupling, the relationship between urban transportation carbon emissions and economic development presents an inverted U-shaped EKC curve in China, and all cities have basically not crossed the inflection point and not entered the absolute decoupling state, but are in the trend of evolving to the quantitative decoupling state. This conclusion also verifies the view that velocity decoupling is generally in the weak decoupling stage. (3) The quantitative decoupling analysis also shows that urban population density, urban road density and per capita private car ownership all can worsen transportation carbon emissions, while public transport efficiency is the key driving forces for industrial carbon emission reduction. This study will help policymakers and practitioners to better understand the decoupling relationship between urban economic development and transportation carbon emissions in China, so as to formulate a strategy that fits China’s characteristics to achieve the “double carbon target” for transportation sector.