Application of a Modified Warpinski Method for In-Situ Horizontal Stress Prediction Coupled with Thermal Effects

ABSTRACT: Understanding the effect of in-situ stresses on geological formations has been modeled over the years aiming to evaluate their behavior in zones of interest. The relationship between horizontal stress, pore pressure, and fracture gradient significantly predicts the safe range of drilling fluid weight, avoiding kick, wellbore instability, and loss of circulation material. The challenges in estimating horizontal stress include the lack of information on rock properties, which entails the need for open-hole well tests and/or coring analysis. These techniques collaborate to estimate the stresses in a specific area well but are not applicable to all scenarios. The Warpinski method proposes an approach for elastic and viscoelastic rock behavior, introducing the relationship between stress and strain when deriving horizontal stress. This research presents a case study in which the Warpinski method is applied, assuming temperature variation and its effect compared to a second scenario when the temperature is assumed to be constant. The preliminary data were derived from a prior study referenced throughout the paper, and the results were compared to previous methods that were well-known in the oil industry. The data obtained from the Warpinski method shows a good approach related to the other methods mentioned, showing results that are in accordance with what is expected. 1 INTRODUCTION Over the years, researchers have developed models to understand how in-situ stresses affect geological formations, intending to assess their behavior in specific zones of interest. Furthermore, as the pursuit of sustainable energy solutions intensifies, it requires intricate comprehension of the in-situ stress-strain dynamics, which makes it a paramount consideration in diverse subsurface engineering applications, playing a pivotal role in the realms of oil field development, geothermal energy extraction, and Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) initiatives. In the oil field, accurate estimations of in-situ stress are imperative for addressing challenges associated with bore-hole stability, hydraulic fracturing optimization, and reservoir management. The interaction between rock formations and the stress conditions is integral to mitigating risks such as wellbore collapse, induced seismicity, and fluid migration. The correlation among horizontal stress, pore pressure, and fracture gradient is a crucial predictor for determining a safe range of drilling fluid weight, preventing kicks, and the loss of circulation material (Lesage et al., 1991).