IDDF2024-ABS-0432 Global epidemiology of premature mortality from pancreatic cancer: identifying high-risk populations

Background Pancreatic cancer is a deadly disease with poor survival rates globally. Recent data has suggested concerning trends of premature pancreatic cancer mortality in certain populations. This study analyzed the latest global epidemiological data to identify emerging patterns of premature pancreatic cancer mortality and explore how these trends vary by sex, age, and country. Methods Pancreatic cancer mortality data was extracted from the Global Cancer Observatory (GLOBOCAN) and WHO mortality databases. Country-specific age-standardised mortality rates (ASRs) were analyzed using joinpoint regression to calculate the average annual percentage change (AAPC) over the past 10 years. Trends were further examined by age, sex, and country. Results Globally, the ASR of premature pancreatic cancer mortality was 5.6 per 100,000 in 2022, with higher rates in males (6.9) than females (4.4). Countries with very high HDI had the highest premature ASR (7.4), followed by high (4.0), low (2.0) and medium HDI (1.9) countries. Joinpoint analysis revealed significant increasing trends in premature mortality, particularly in Georgia (AAPC: 8.99%) and Uzbekistan (AAPC: 6.04%). Trends differed by sex, with females demonstrating more remarkable increases, exemplified by Suriname (AAPC: 13.53%). Premature mortality decreased generally in younger populations but increased among older age groups, with the greatest changes observed in Georgia (AAPC: 9.04%) and Uzbekistan (AAPC: 5.28%). Conclusions This study identified concerning increasing trends in premature pancreatic cancer mortality, especially among females and older populations. Further research is needed to understand the underlying drivers of these emerging global patterns to inform targeted prevention and early detection strategies.