Mali's junta may face stalemate in the north

Significance This followed claims from Ukrainian military intelligence that it had aided northern rebels in a July 27 ambush in the remote north-eastern locality of Tinzaouatene, which may have cost the lives of up to 84 Russian mercenaries and 47 soldiers of the Malian Armed Forces (FAMa). Impacts FAMa and Wagner Group attacks and massacres close to the Algerian frontier may worsen relations with Algiers. The Islamic State-Sahel Province (IS-Sahel) may exploit FAMa’s focus on the CSP to expand its territory. Russian reliance on FAMa’s logistical infrastructure will limit their ability to project force in the north.