The Big Peach Divided: Demographic-Electoral Transitions and Geographic Polarization in Atlanta Metropolitan Area Counties

highlights: • A rapidly diversifying state, Georgia is set to become majority-minority by 2030. • Changing racial compositions correlate with electoral shifts in the Atlanta Metropolitan Area. • The inner suburbs have become Democratic strongholds, while Republicans win peripheral counties. • Geographic sorting and diversification made Georgia an electoral battleground after 2016. • Similar patterns of demographic-electoral transition can be seen in other US states. abstract: Like much of the Southern United States, Georgia was once overwhelmingly Democratic. Towards the end of the 20th century, however, it became a stronghold for the Republican party. By the late 2010s, the Peach State was transformed into an electoral battleground, delivering crucial victories to both parties in federal and statewide elections. In 2020, Joe Biden became the first Democratic presidential candidate to win the state in 28 years. The Atlanta Metropolitan area has been at the center of these political shifts due to rapid and ongoing demographic changes that reflect and amplify the urban-rural divide. Voters in the region are geographically concentrated in a Democratic-dominated core and a Republican-dominated exurban periphery. Caught in between these zones are suburban areas, which are growing and diversifying at a rate much faster than the national average. As they do so, they are joining the Democratic core, while Republican voters are increasingly concentrated in smaller, outlying counties. These patterns are re-defining the state’s politics and provide an accelerated example of what we will likely see in other metropolitan areas of the United States in the future.