International Security in a Quantum Age: Hope, Harm, and Hype

Abstract: The past decade has witnessed considerable hope—and no small measure of hyperbole and fear—regarding a coming "revolution" in quantum computing, sensing, and communication. With states and multinational corporations investing billions of dollars globally, there have been incremental advances punctuated by notable breakthroughs, and several second-generation quantum technologies are already being field-tested and tentatively deployed. While it is premature to declare the arrival of a "quantum age," the disruptive impact and existential anxieties elicited by generative AI underscore that now is the time to consider the potential consequences of quantum tipping points. In this article, we embark on a speculative journey—a Gedankenexperiment, if you will—exploring how the pursuit to develop and deploy quantum technologies might reshape the international geopolitical landscape.