Computational Modeling of Drug Response Identifies Mutant-Specific Constraints for Dosing panRAF and MEK Inhibitors in Melanoma

This study explores the potential of pre-clinical in vitro cell line response data and computational modeling in identifying the optimal dosage requirements of pan-RAF (Belvarafenib) and MEK (Cobimetinib) inhibitors in melanoma treatment. Our research is motivated by the critical role of drug combinations in enhancing anti-cancer responses and the need to close the knowledge gap around selecting effective dosing strategies to maximize their potential. In a drug combination screen of 43 melanoma cell lines, we identified specific dosage landscapes of panRAF and MEK inhibitors for NRAS vs. BRAF mutant melanomas. Both experienced benefits, but with a notably more synergistic and narrow dosage range for NRAS mutant melanoma (mean Bliss score of 0.27 in NRAS vs. 0.1 in BRAF mutants). Computational modeling and follow-up molecular experiments attributed the difference to a mechanism of adaptive resistance by negative feedback. We validated the in vivo translatability of in vitro dose-response maps by predicting tumor growth in xenografts with high accuracy in capturing cytostatic and cytotoxic responses. We analyzed the pharmacokinetic and tumor growth data from Phase 1 clinical trials of Belvarafenib with Cobimetinib to show that the synergy requirement imposes stricter precision dose constraints in NRAS mutant melanoma patients. Leveraging pre-clinical data and computational modeling, our approach proposes dosage strategies that can optimize synergy in drug combinations, while also bringing forth the real-world challenges of staying within a precise dose range. Overall, this work presents a framework to aid dose selection in drug combinations.