Clinical Treatment Score Post-5 Years (CTS5) and Late Recurrence Risk in Hormone Receptor–Positive, HER2-Positive Breast Cancer

Background: The Clinical Treatment Score post-5 years (CTS5) is a risk stratification tool used to determine the risk of late recurrence in hormone receptor–positive (HR+), HER2-negative breast cancer (BC). Limited data exist on its use in HR+, HER2-positive (HER2+) BC. Patients and Methods: CTS5 was evaluated in HR+, HER2+ BC in the North Central Cancer Treatment Group (NCCTG) N9831 (Alliance) and NSABP B-31 (NRG) trials. Results: A total of 1,862 patients with HR+, HER2+ BC without recurrence 5 years after enrollment were included. Overall, the CTS5 score was significantly associated with recurrence-free survival (RFS), with a hazard ratio (HR) of 1.35 (95% CI, 1.12–1.63; P =.002), but did not reach statistical significance in patients who received trastuzumab (n=829; HR, 1.29; 95% CI, 0.98–1.71; P =.07). CTS5 risk category was not significantly associated with RFS. In patients who received trastuzumab, other variables used in CTS5, including patient age and tumor size, were not significantly associated with RFS. N3 was significantly associated with worse outcomes (HR, 1.86; 95% CI, 1.09–3.17; P =.02) compared with N0–N1. Paradoxically, higher tumor grade was associated with better outcomes after 5 years in the multivariate analysis (HR, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.50–1.00; P =.05). The incidence of recurrences or deaths between years 5 to 10 was 10.6% in the CTS5 low-risk category, 5.6% in the intermediate-risk category, and 9.8% in the high-risk category. Conclusions: The CTS5 model does not accurately predict the risk of late recurrence in HR+, HER2+ BC treated with adjuvant trastuzumab in the N9831 and B-31 trials. This study underlines the need to develop a new prognostic model to better delineate the risk of late recurrence in patients with HR+, HER2+ BC receiving adjuvant trastuzumab. ClinicalTrials.gov identifiers: NCT00005970 (NCCTG N9831) and NCT00004067 (NRG/NSABP B-31).