Impacts of climate change and best management practices on nitrate loading to a eutrophic coastal lagoon

Anthropogenic climate change and associated increasing nutrient loading to coasts will worsen coastal eutrophication on a global scale. Basin Head is a coastal lagoon located in northeastern Prince Edward Island, Canada, with a federally protected ecosystem. Nitrate-nitrogen (NO 3 -N) is conveyed from agricultural fields in the watershed to the eutrophic lagoon via intertidal groundwater springs and groundwater-dominated tributaries. A field program focused on four main tributaries that discharge into the lagoon was conducted to measure year-round NO 3 -N loading. These measurements were used to calibrate a SWAT+ hydrologic model capable of simulating hydrologic and NO 3 -N loads to the lagoon. Several climate change scenarios incorporating different agricultural best management practices (BMPs) were simulated to better understand potential future NO 3 -N loading dynamics. Results indicate that all climate change scenarios produced increased annual NO 3 -N loading to the lagoon when comparing historical (1990–2020) to end of century time periods (2070–2100); however, only one climate scenario (MRI-ESM2-0 SSP5-8.5) resulted in a statistically significant ( p -value 0.05) increase. Enlarged buffer strips and delayed tillage BMP simulations produced small (0%–8%) effects on loading, while changing the crop rotation from potato-barley-clover to potato-soybean-barley yielded a small reduction in NO 3 -N loading between the historical period and the end of the century (26%–33%). Modeling revealed changes in seasonal loading dynamics under climate change where NO 3 -N loads remained more consistent throughout the year as opposed to current conditions where the dominant load is in the spring. An increase in baseflow contributions to streamflow was also noted under climate change, with the largest change occurring in the winter (e.g., up to a five-fold increase in February). These findings have direct implications for coastal management in groundwater-dominated agricultural watersheds in a changing climate.