Spatiotemporal dynamics of land use and land cover change around Volcanoes National Park and their implications for biodiversity conservation

This study comprehensively analyses spatiotemporal land use/land cover (LULC) dynamics within a 10-km buffer zone surrounding Volcanoes National Park (VNP), Rwanda, from 2000 to 2019, integrating biophysical and socio-economic drivers. It aims to quantify LULC change extent, rate, and type around VNP and inside the park; identify socio-economic, demographic, and policy drivers of LULC change; and evaluate the impact of LULC changes on VNP's biodiversity via habitat fragmentation, connectivity, and species diversity. Employing remote sensing, spatial modelling, and field data, we reveal profound transformations within the park's periphery. Forests and woodlots have significantly declined, replaced by agriculture, grasslands, and built-up areas, particularly in the 5.1–10 km belt (92.29% forest loss). While reforestation efforts exist, they are outpaced by deforestation, creating a stark deforestation-to-reforestation ratio of 12:1 in the 5.1 10 km belt and 6:1 in the 0–5 km belt. This alarming trend threatens VNP's biodiversity as resource dependent communities continue to extract firewood, construction materials, and beanpoles from the park. To mitigate these impacts, we propose integrated strategies encompassing strengthened law enforcement, sustainable land management practices, community-based conservation initiatives, and alternative livelihood development.