Hourly estimation of water reaching the ground surface in snow-covered regions of Japan using mesoscale meteorological data with the heat balance method

In snow-covered regions, landslides, including debris flows, frequently result from snowmelt and cause significant hazards. Because these snowmelt-induced landslides are triggered by increasing groundwater level and pore-water pressure acting on the slip surface due to infiltration of snowmelt, sometimes mixed with rainwater, accurate estimation of water reaching the ground surface (abbreviated MR in this study) on an hourly basis is essential for developing countermeasures such as an early warning system. This study introduces a model for estimating hourly MR, as well as snow water equivalent and snow depth, using mesoscale meteorological data provided by the Japan Meteorological Agency. The model considers four processes: precipitation, snow accumulation and densification, snowmelt, and infiltration. In the snowmelt process, snowmelt is estimated using the heat balance method. We applied the model to a snow observation station in Niigata Prefecture, central Japan, where MR, snow water equivalent, and snow depth were observed during the winter seasons of 2017–18 through 2020–21. Comparisons of observed and calculated values demonstrated that the model successfully reproduced the observations, regardless of the amount of snowfall in individual winter seasons. We propose that this model can estimate hourly MR, snow water equivalent, and snow depth at any location in snow-covered regions where on-site meteorological and snow observations are unavailable.