Development of Risk Quantification Models in Road Infrastructure Projects

Road infrastructure is a significant factor in the development of any country, affecting economic growth, social development, and environmental sustainability. Large infrastructure projects often face significant risks and uncertainties, which can lead to delays, budget over-runs, and an insufficient quality of the completed work. These issues undermine the economic viability of projects and affect the overall efficiency of infrastructure development. For these reasons, based on a literature review and completed project analysis, the risks that lead to an increasing Contract Price (ICP) and an Extension of Time (EoT) for the construction of the project are identified. Based on the results of the completed project analysis, the values of the ICP and EoT were quantified. Also, the probability of the occurrence of each risk in new projects was calculated. Based on the obtained results, a model was defined that groups risks into clusters. Risks in the first cluster should have priority for funding, and preventive measures are defined for them. The model obtained in this way can greatly enhance project management in real-world conditions and can lead to a significant reduction in project time and budget over-runs.