The connection between North Atlantic storm track regimes and eastern Mediterranean cyclonic activity

Abstract. A unique chain connects the flow over the North Atlantic and the development of cyclones within the Mediterranean basin. One typical mechanism includes several successive processes: upper-level flow perturbations upstream cause Rossby wave breaking (RWB) events along the jet stream, which in turn develop into potential vorticity streamers. These streamers reach the Mediterranean, and through increased baroclinicity they enhance cyclonic activity in the region. Using European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis v5 (ERA5) data and rain gauge measurements, we provide a systematic analysis connecting wintertime North Atlantic storm track regimes and eastern Mediterranean cyclones and rainfall. To do so, we use different detection algorithms for each element in the chain (RWBs, streamers and cyclones). A cluster analysis of upper-tropospheric eddy kinetic energy reveals a favorable configuration of the storm track where North Atlantic storms are able to propagate farther northeast. This results in upper-level potential vorticity streamers forming more eastward alongside above-average precipitation over the Levant. Meanwhile, other latitudinal positions of the storm track (southward or northward) were found to hinder cyclonic activity in the region and reduce rainfall there. The intense rainy winter of 1991–1992 is brought as a test case to exemplify this mechanism in its extreme. We show that the rain-enhancing storm track regime was prominent throughout most of this season, alongside frequent streamers in the eastern Mediterranean.