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Abstract In order to meet a stringent carbon budget, shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) aligned with the Paris Agreement typically require substantial land-use changes (LUC), such as large-scale forestation and bioenergy crop plantations. What if such a low-emission, intense-LUC scenario actually materialized? This paper quantifies the biophysical effects of LUC under SSP1-2.6 using an ensemble of regional climate simulations over Europe. We find that LUC projected over the 21st century, primarily broadleaf-tree forestation at the expense of grasslands, reduce summertime heat extremes significantly over large swaths of continental Europe. In fact, cooling from LUC trumps warming by greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, resulting in milder heat extremes by 2100 for about half of the European population. Forestation brings heat relief by shifting the partition of turbulent energy fluxes away from sensible and towards latent heat fluxes. Impacts on the water cycle are then assessed. Forestation enhances precipitation recycling over continental Europe, but not enough to match the boost of evapotranspiration (green water flux). Run-off (blue water flux) is reduced as a consequence. Some regions experience severe drying in response. In other words, forestation turns blue water green, bringing heat relief but compromising water availability in some already-dry regions.
Asselin et al. (Wed,) studied this question.