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This study investigates the profound and multifaceted impacts of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and geopolitical developments on global dynamics by 2040. Utilising a Delphi process coupled with probabilistic modelling, the research constructs detailed scenarios that reveal the cascading effects of these emerging forces across economic, societal, and security domains. The findings underscore the transformative potential of AI, predicting significant shifts in employment patterns, regulatory challenges, and societal structures. Specifically, the study forecasts a high probability of AI-induced unemployment reaching 40–50%, alongside the rapid evolution of AI technologies, outpacing existing governance frameworks, which could exacerbate economic inequalities and societal fragmentation. Simultaneously, the study examines the critical role of geopolitical developments, identifying increased nationalisation, the expansion of conflicts such as the Russia–Ukraine war, and the strategic manoeuvres of major powers like China and Israel as key factors that will shape the future global landscape. The research highlights a worrying lack of preparedness among governments and societies, with a 10% probability of their being equipped to manage the complex risks posed by these developments. This low level of readiness is further complicated by the short-term orientation prevalent in Western businesses, which prioritise immediate returns over long-term strategic planning, thereby undermining the capacity to respond effectively to these global challenges. The study calls for urgent, forward-looking policies and international cooperation to address the risks and opportunities associated with AI and geopolitical shifts. It emphasises the need for proactive governance, cross-sector collaboration, and robust regulatory frameworks to ensure that the benefits of technological and geopolitical advancements are harnessed without compromising global stability or societal well-being. As the world stands on the brink of unprecedented change, the findings of this study provide a crucial roadmap for navigating the uncertainties of the future.
Michael Gerlich (Wed,) studied this question.