Estimating the effect of transitioning to a strength-based alcohol tax system on alcohol consumption and health outcomes: a modelling study of tax reform in England

Increasing the amount of alcohol taxation is among the most effective measures for addressing the rising global burden of alcohol harm. However, less is known about the effect of changing alcohol tax structures. Substantial reforms to UK alcohol taxation structures enacted in August, 2023, mean that all alcohol is taxed based on its ethanol content, beers and ciders sold in on-trade premises (eg, public houses) are taxed at a reduced rate (hereafter called draught relief), and beer and particularly cider remain taxed at lower rates than other alcohol of equivalent strength. We aimed to model the effect of these reforms on alcohol consumption and health and economic outcomes, and the effects of hypothetical alternative scenarios.