Humid heatwaves are controlled by daily rainfall variability

Abstract Humid heatwaves are a growing risk to human and animal health, especially in tropical regions. While there is established research on dry-bulb temperature heatwaves, greater understanding of the meteorological drivers is urgently needed. In this study, we find that recent rainfall is a key control on the occurrence of humid heatwaves and its effect is regulated by the energy- or moisture-limited state of the land surface. In moisture-limited environments, heatwaves are likely during, or immediately after, enhanced rainfall. In energy-limited environments, heatwaves are likely after suppression of rainfall for two days or longer. The nature of the threat to health from heat stress varies by environment. It depends on local adaptation to temperature or humidity extremes, as well as vulnerability to absolute or anomalous extremes. Adaptation and early warning will benefit from this new understanding of humid heatwave drivers, which shows the possibility of predicting events using satellite-derived rainfall and surface moisture data.